Because of a recent drought in Florida during the orange-growing season

Because of a recent drought in Florida during the orange-growing season, the price of oranges this season will be three times the usual price. This will drive up the cost of producing orange juice and thus push up the price of orange juice for the consumer.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument above?

1. The recent drought was not as severe as scientists predicted.
2. States other than Florida also supply oranges to orange juice manufacturers.
3. Other ingredients are used in the production of orange juice.
4. Last year the price of oranges was actually lower than the average price over the past ten years.
5. The price of oranges will eventually be $0.48 per crate.

Since the passage of the state’s Clean Air Act ten years ago

Since the passage of the state’s Clean Air Act ten years ago, the level of industrial pollutants in the air has fallen by an average of 18 percent. This suggests that the restrictions on industry embodied in the act have worked effectively. However, during the same period the state has also suffered through a period of economic decline. The number of businesses in the state has fallen by 10 percent, and the number of workers employed has fallen by 12 percent. It is probable that the business decline, rather than the regulations in the act, is responsible for at least half of the decline in the pollution.

Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the conclusion drawn in the passage above?

1. During the last ten years, economic conditions in the nation as a whole have been worse than those within the state.
2. Amendments to the Clean Air Act that were enacted six years ago have substantially strengthened its restrictions on industrial air pollution.
3. Of the businesses that ceased operating in the state during the last ten years, only 5 percent were engaged in air-polluting industries.
4. Several large corporations left the state during the last ten years partly in order to avoid compliance with the Clean Air Act.
5. Due to its small budget, the state office charged with enforcement of the Clean Air Act has prosecuted only two violators of the law since its passage.

The postal service is badly mismanaged.

The postal service is badly mismanaged. Forty years ago, first-class letter delivery cost only three cents. Since then, the price has increased nearly tenfold, with an actual decrease in the speed and reliability of service.

Each of the following statements, if true, would tend to weaken the argument above EXCEPT:

a. The volume of mail handled by the postal service has increased dramatically over the last forty years.

b. Unprecedented increases in the cost of fuel for trucks and planes have put severe upward pressures on postal delivery costs.

c. Private delivery services usually charge more than does the postal service for comparable delivery charges.

d. The average delivery time for a first-class letter four decades ago was actually slightly longer than it is today.（E）

e. The average level of consumer prices overall has increased more than 300 percent over the last forty years.

Some commentators complain that a "litigation explosion"

Some commentators complain that a “litigation explosion” in the past decade has led to unreasonably high costs for U.S. businesses by encouraging more product liability suits against manufacturers. However, these complaints are based mainly on myth. Statistics show that the number of successful product liability suits has remained almost the same, and the average sum awarded in damages has grown no faster than the inflation rate.

Which of the following, if true, would most weaken the argument above?

A. The number of unsuccessful suits has skyrocketed, imposing huge new legal expenses on businesses.

B. Several of the largest awards ever made in product liability cases occurred within the last two years.

C. The rise of the consumer movement has encouraged citizens to seek legal redress for product flaws.

D. Lawyers often undertake product liability cases on a contingency basis, so their payment is based on the size of the damages awarded.（A）

E. Juries often award damages in product liability suits out of emotional sympathy for an injured consumer.

The pace of technological development

Analyst: The pace of technological development brings a constant stream of new devices to the market, and many of them enjoy commercial success. But announcing new technology too soon after the introduction of a successful device can backfire. Once consumers hear about the new device, they may stop buying the one currently on sale. So, if a company wishes to announce the upcoming sale of a new device, it should wait until purchases of the old device have begun to decline.

Which of the following, if true, would best support the analyst's main assertion?

A. New technology often becomes less expensive after an initial surge in sales.
B. Media outlets, such as television programs and magazines, often report on the planned introduction of new devices while the sales of old devices are still strong.
C. Many consumers are unable to determine whether new technology is superior to current
technology.
D. Surveys have shown that some consumers make only one or two technology purchases per year, whereas others make more frequent purchases.
E. Consumers tend to be loyal to technology companies whose products they enjoy using.

Novex

Advertisement: For sinus pain, three out of four hospitals give their patients Novex. So when you want the most effective painkiller for sinus pain, Novex is the one to choose.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously undermines the advertisement’s argument?

(A) Some competing brands of painkillers are intended to reduce other kinds of pain in addition to sinus pain.
(B) Many hospitals that do not usually use Novex will do so for those patients who cannot tolerate the drug the hospitals usually use.
(C) Many drug manufacturers increase sales of their products to hospitals by selling these products to the hospitals at the lowest price the manufacturers can afford.
(D) Unlike some competing brands of painkillers, Novex is available from pharmacies without a doctor’s prescription.
(E) In clinical trials Novex has been found more effective than competing brands of painkillers that have been on the market longer than Novex.

A gift

is not generous unless it is intended to benefit the recipient and is worth more than what is expected or customary in the situation; a gift is selfish if it is given to benefit the giver or is less valuable than is customary.

Which one of the following judgments most closely conforms to the principle above?

(A) Charles, who hates opera, was given two expensive tickets to the opera. He in turn gave them to his cousin, who loves opera, as a birthday gift. Charles’s gift was selfish because he paid nothing for the tickets.

(B) Emily gives her brother a year’s membership in a health club. She thinks that this will allow
her brother to get the exercise he needs. However, the gift is selfish because Emily’s
brother is hurt and offended by it.

(C) Amanda gives each of her clients an expensive bottle of wine every year. Amanda’s gifts are
generous, since they cause the clients to continue giving Amanda business.

(D) Olga gives her daughter a computer as a graduation gift. Since this is the gift that all
children in Olga’s family receive for graduation, it is not generous.

(E) Michael gave his nephew $50 as a birthday gift, more than he had ever given before.
Michael’s nephew, however, lost the money. Therefore, Michael’s gift was not generous
because it did not benefit the recipient.

Tropical oils

Consumer advocate: Tropical oils are high in saturated fats, which increase the risk of heart disease. Fortunately, in most prepared food tropical oils can be replaced by healthier alternatives without noticeably affecting taste. Therefore, intensive publicity about the disadvantage of tropical oils will be likely to result in dietary changes that will diminish many people’s risk of developing heart disease.

Nutritionist: The major sources of saturated fat in the average North American diet are meat, poultry, and dairy products, not tropical oils. Thus, focusing attention on the health hazards of tropical oils would be counterproductive, because it would encourage people to believe that more substantial dietary changes are unnecessary.

Which one of the following is a point at issue between the nutritionist and the consumer advocate?

(A) Whether a diet that regularly includes large quantities of tropical oil can increase the risk of heart disease.
(B) Whether intensive publicity campaigns can be effective as means of changing people’s eating habits.
(C) Whether more people in North American would benefit from reducing the amount of meat they consume than would benefit from eliminating tropical oils from their diets.
(D) Whether some people’s diets could be made significantly healthier if they replaced all tropical oils with vegetable oils that are significantly lower in saturated fat.
(E) Whether conducting a publicity campaign that by focusing on the health hazards of tropical oils persuades people to replace such oils with healthier alternatives is a good public-health strategy.

Video Recorder

Six months or so after getting a video recorder, many early buyers apparently lost interest in obtaining videos to watch on it. The trade of businesses selling and renting videos is still buoyant, because the number of homes with video recorders is still growing. But clearly, once the market for video recorders is saturated, businesses distributing videos face hard times.

Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the conclusion above?

(A) The market for video recorders would not be considered saturated until there was one in 80 percent of homes.
(B) Among the items handled by video distributors are many films specifically produced as video features.
(C) Few of the early buyers of video recorders raised any complaints about performance aspects of the new product.
(D) The early buyers of a novel product are always people who are quick to acquire novelties, but also often as quick to tire of them.
(E) In a shrinking market, competition always intensifies and marginal businesses fail.

If, in a tennis tournament, a match reaches a fifth-set tiebreak

If, in a tennis tournament, a match reaches a fifth-set tiebreak, the lower-ranked player always loses the tiebreak (and, therefore, the match). If Rafael, the second-ranked player, wins a tournament by beating Roger, the top-ranked player, then the match must not have included a fifth-set tiebreak.

Which of the following arguments most closely mimics the reasoning used in the above argument?

(A) If a woman with a family history of twins gets pregnant three times, she will have one set of twins. Jennifer, who falls into this category, had two sets of twins, so she must not have gotten pregnant exactly three times.
(B) If a salesman sells more product than anyone else in a calendar year, then he will earn an all-expenses-paid vacation. Joe earned an all-expense-paid vacation, so he must have sold more product than anyone else for the year.
(C) A newspaper can charge a 50% premium for ads if its circulation surpasses 100,000; if the circulation does not pass 100,000, therefore, the newspaper can't charge any kind of premium for ads.
(D) If a student is in the top 10% of her class, she will earn a college scholarship. Anna is not in the top 10% of her class, so she will not earn a scholarship.
(E) All of the players on a football team receive a cash bonus if the team wins the Super Bowl. If quarterback Tom Brady earned a cash bonus last year, he must have been a member of the winning Super Bowl team.